So, this article points out that the gap between Dilwale and Bajirao is biggest in the Bombay box office, and that the Bombay market is usually the biggest profit within India.  They also point out, what should have been a “no duh!” sort of thing but which somehow had not occurred to me, that Bajirao is about a famous Maharashtrian, and therefore will do better in Maharashtra than anywhere else.

There are other factors, of course.  The reviews are more or less unanimous in declaring Bajirao the better made film, and it obviously has much better word of mouth.  But, Dilwale is more family and child friendly, and has a bigger named star, which makes it so surprising that the films are not just both doing well, but actually neck-and-neck at the Indian box office.

But the Maharashtra factor explains it.  It makes it a more popular film within Bombay, which means winning the Indian box office (even if through out India as a whole, the two films are equally popular).  It also explains why the global box office has such a different picture.  Once you get overseas, your Indian identity is more closely tied to Shahrukh Khan than to Bajirao I.