So, the first weekend figures are out, and rediff.com has an analysis.  Well, a lot of sites have an analysis, but I trust rediff the most.

The short answer is, Dilwale wins!  But the long answer is more complex, and involves Salman Khan.  Things that involve Salman are always complex.

So, remember how a few days ago I posted about the blockbooking shenanigans Adi tried to pull with Ekk Tha Tiger and Jab Tak Hain Jaan?  Apparently, Eros tried the same thing with Bajrangi Bhaijaan and Bajirao Mastani.  And the single-screen theaters went to court, and won the right to show whatever movie they wanted, Dilwale or Bajirao.  What I find really interesting about this, is that in both cases a Salman Khan movie was used as the enticement.

Shahrukh and Aamir do well overseas, they do well with promotions, they do well with the multiplex crowd.  But when you are running a single-screen theater in India, and you want a movie that will fill every seat every time you run it, Salman is where you go.  And the only way the fancier international releases can get that audience, is if they try to illegally ride his coat tails.

Anyway, speaking of international, it looks like that is where Dilwale will really shine.  Which makes sense, the past several Shahrukh releases have done better overseas, in general, than at home.  Even going back to Dil Se, if you recall, it flopped at home, but was the first Indian film to break the British top 10.  According to one of those links up above, Dilwale made it to #2 in the British box office (behind Star Wars.  On a regular week, it could have been #1).  It was 9 in America, by the way, while Bajirao was 10.

Looking at America as a sample of the international figures, while they were 9-10 on the overall list, Bajirao had 304 screens to Dilwale‘s 268, and its per screen average was much worse.  So this means their rankings are bucking the trend of “more screens=more profit.”  I wouldn’t be surprised if theaters start dropping Bajirao and picking up Dilwale next weekend.

Actually, next weekend is going to be a deciding factor in a number of ways.  According to the rediff article, the desultory protests in various cities probably knocked about 10 crore off the opening weekend take for Dilwale.  Those are probably over now (not enough publicity in protesting the second weekend).  Plus, word of mouth looks pretty good for Dilwale, sales went down a little on Saturday and then up again on Sunday.  Which means most people saw it opening night, a few more saw it on Saturday, and then there were repeats and new audience members thanks to word of mouth on Sunday.  And that probably means even more repeats next weekend, plus schools and most businesses will be closed for Christmas, making it a long weekend in India and worldwide.

It’s that long weekend that probably convinced SRK to take a risk on this release date.  Even though Dilwale is the clear winner between the two films, it wasn’t a total blow out, and Bajirao definitely took a chunk out of the opening weekend take.  But this way, they get the benefit of whatever profit they can make this weekend, plus good word of mouth, going into the long holiday weekend where the majority of the profit will be.  Versus letting Bajirao have this weekend and settling for whatever theaters they can get next weekend.  This way is a gamble, because it only works if the word of mouth and tickets for Dilwale show it a clear winner over Bajirao by Wednesday, giving theater owners time to switch films, but it looks like it might pay off.

But Dilwale definitely took a hit this weekend, Sanjay Leela Bhansali should be proud.  It’s hard to really tell how these films do, because the business is changing so rapidly that you can’t really compare opening weekends from even a few years ago to what they are today.  But just a month ago, Prem Ratan Dhan Payo made about twice as much on its opening day as Dilwale did.   The last SRKajol film, My Name is Khan, on fewer screens, with ticket prices of 5 years ago, and dogged by massive controversy, made 33 crore opening weekend, which is a lot closer to Dilwale‘s 64 crore than it should be.  Chennai Express, just a few years ago, made 87 crore opening weekend, and that wasn’t even an SRKajol film.  Although it did release on the actual holiday weekend (as did Prem Ratan), not right before a holiday, which always adds profit.

My guess is, the gamble will pay off in the long run.  This weekend may have been a little dry, but it is still a solid profit.  And next weekend, they may finally get those opening weekend profits with Bajirao pretty much out of the picture.  Bajirao got good reviews and good word of mouth too, but according to another of those articles linked up there, it only had 30% occupancy in India over the weekend.  If I were running a theater, and I had 30% occupancy one Friday, I would immediately start working on getting a new film in place for the next weekend.  It would have to pick up an awful lot for me to keep that film through the next weekend.  Which means there is a good chance Bajirao will be losing screens in India as well as abroad for next week.

Overall, it looks like Dilwale hit more of that hearts and minds sweet spot for the average viewer, at home and abroad.  Bajirao is magnificent, no doubt (I still haven’t seen it), and critics loved it, and it’s doing well in Indian multiplexes, but if you want a good old-fashioned film, one that you can enjoy in a single-screen in India, or with your whole extended family in America, it’s going to be Dilwale all the way.  Or a Salman film, apparently, but none of those will be coming out for a while.